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Let us make a deal

Let us make a deal

You have been invited to a TV game show - "Make a Deal”.
If you are lucky, you can win a car.
In this show, the host asks the participant to pick one option from a choice of three doors. Behind one door there is a car and behind the other two doors - either it is a sheep or nothing.
In the game show, after you have chosen a door out of three doors. The host opens a door out of the remaining two doors. To your luck, the host chosen door has nothing behind it.
How lucky! Now the host offers you to stick to your first chosen door or switch to the other unopened door. You need to decide.
Choose your option now. Will you stay with your initial option or switch to the unopened door, after the host opens another door with nothing behind it?
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The mistakes we make in our everyday life

• We are hardwired to make these mistakes • Few biases are simply evolutionary • These errors affect all of us including the bright ones • Experience is just not enough to overcome • but expertise is required to recognize and overcome

Few of biases as below · Anchoring - When an individual depends too heavily on an initial piece of information during decision making · Fixed pie - When we assume that our interests conflict with the other party's interests and we play adversarial · Framing - When we decide on our options differently when the options are presented with positive or negative connotations · Vividness – When we pay attention to strong features at the expense of less, that could be more impactful · Over confidence – When our subjective confidence is greater than the objective accuracy · Escalation – When initial decision is followed up with an irrational decision to justify the initial decision

Few ways to mitigate these biases are · Learn to recognize the bias · Use slow, effortful and logical thinking (System 2) · Avoid fast, automatic and effortless thinking (System 1) · Avoid negotiations which are thrust upon when not ready · Learn through use of stories, examples, exercises · Bring an outsider perspective